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Lecturers: P. Bazzurro, P. Venini

Probability and Statistics for Engineering Applications a.y. 2020/21

Programma

Most problems in the different fields of Civil Engineering cannot be fully and efficiently addressed without knowledge of probability and statistics. In this course we will make an attempt to cover some basic aspects of probability and statistics that relate to practical matters keeping dice tossing and card games to a bare minimum. Less emphasis will be given to derivations and more to concepts and applications. We will start by discussing why probability and statistics are related but are not the same. Concept and definition of random variables and different functions of random variables will be covered in this initial part of the course. Afterwards, focus is given to commonly used probability distribution functions in civil engineering. Discussions on statistics and sampling are presented towards the last part of the course. In this part, goodness of fit tests, regression analysis, estimation of distribution parameters from statistics, hypothesis testing and their significance will be discussed. Finally basics of Monte Carlo simulation and an introduction to variance reduction techniques will also be covered. Each topic is discussed with reference to different application problems and their solutions in different fields of civil engineering, such as Structural Engineering, Earthquake Engineering, Transportation Engineering, Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, and Geotechnical Engineering. Basic applications of decision analysis will also be introduced. 
The course will be taught in English. 

DESCRIPTION 
Theoretical lectures will be complemented by tutorials (aiming at practical application of the concepts and methods developed during the lectures). The topics to be discussed in the course are reported in the following:
 
COURSE CONTENTS:
PART I
Overview of the course. Why do we need probability and statistics? Fundamentals of Applied Probability and Statistics
Main Objectives of the Course
Probability and Statistics. Why Bother? Do you have a good number sense?
Looking ahead: Examples of use of probability and Statistics to model occurrences of natural events
 
PART II
Fundamentals of Applied Probability and Statistics
Set Theory and Probability Theory
Random Variables and Distributions
Jointly Distributed Random Variables
Expectations and Moments of Random variables
Functions of Random Variables
Using Empirical Data
Common Probability Distribution Models:
Models for Repeated Experiments
Models for Random Occurrences
Limiting Cases: the Normal Distribution, the Lognormal Distribution, the Extreme Value Distributions
Uniform and Beta distributions
 
PART III
Monte Carlo Simulation
Brute-force Monte Carlo simulation
Variance-reduction techniques
 
PART IV
Overview of Applied Classical Statistics:
Distribution Parameter Estimation
Random Variable Model Selection
Goodness of fit tests
Basics of Linear Regression Analysis
Hypothesis testing

Svolgimento

 Week 

Classroom 

Date 

Lecture hours 

Tutorial hours 

Tot 

From____ To____ 

From____ To_____ 

1

online

08-Feb

9:00-12:00

 

3

online

09-Feb

9:00-12:00

 

3

online

10-Feb

9:00-12:00

 

3

online

11-Feb

9:00-12:00

16:00-18:00

5

online

12-Feb

 

14:00-16:00

2

2

online

15-Feb

9:00-12:00

 

3

online

16-Feb

9:00-12:00

 

3

online

17-Feb

9:00-12:00

16:00-18:00

5

online

18-Feb

9:00-12:00

16:00-18:00

5

online/UNIPV

19-Feb

14:30-16:30

midterm exam

2

3

online

22-Feb

9:00-12:00

16:00-18:00

5

online

23-Feb

9:00-12:00

 

3

online

24-Feb

9:00-12:00

14:00-17:00

6

online

25-Feb

10:00-12:00

14:00-17:00

5

online

26-Feb

 

 

 

4

online

01-Mar

 

14:00-16:00

2

online

02-Mar

 

9:00-12:00

3

online

03-Mar

     

online

04-Mar

     

online/UNIPV

05-Mar

9:00-12:00

final exam

3

Bibliografia

Handouts, scientific papers and other technical materials made available during the course. 
Although not required, the following books may prove to be very useful for the course and as future reference after the course 
 
Ang, A. H. and Tang, W. H. (2007). “Probability Concepts In Engineering: Emphasis On Applications In Civil & Environmental Engineering,” Wiley. 
Benjamin, J. R. and C. A. Cornell (1970). Probability, Statistics, and Decision for Civil Engineers. New York, McGraw-Hill. 
Kutner M.H., Nachtsheim C., and Neter J., 2004. Applied linear regression models, McGraw-Hill, 1396 p. 

Esame

ASSESSMENT         % of Final Mark Documentation
Evaluation  
Assignments 25% Open 
Midterm Examination 25% Closed books and notes 
Final Examination 50% Closed books and notes

Paolo Bazzurro

Professore Ordinario di Tecnica delle costruzioni

Ciclo :  XXXIII, XXXIV, XXXV, XXXVI

Tipologia corso : Caratterizzante

Curriculum : Ingegneria Sismica e Sismologia

Periodo: Semestre I

Anno accademico: 2020-2021

Luogo : on line