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Sources of uncertainty in climate change studies and projections (a.a. 2019/20)

Programma

Il modulo consiste in 10 lezioni, divise in due sezioni di 10 ore ciascuna, da tenersi in inglese o in italiano a seconda della presenza o meno di studenti stranieri. Il materiale didattico (presentazioni Powerpoint, articoli) sara’ in lingua inglese. Ogni lezione consiste in un seminario seguito da una sessione di domande/risposte e possibili approfondimenti, in base agli interessi degli studenti.
 

Section 1 (18-21 Nov. 2019): Analysis and interpretation of the observed record

  • Introduction to sources of uncertainties in climate change studies
  • The historical climate record: uncertainties in multi-decadal datasets of observed data and re-analyses
  • Natural climate variability at inter-annual and interdecadal time scales
  • Relationship between natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change: the attribution problem


Section 2 (18-21 Feb. 2020): Modelling climate change and its uncertainties

  • Simulating climate with numerical models: initialisation issues, systematic errors, climate drift
  • Simulations of current and future climate: historical runs and climate projections
  • Climate predictions: from seasonal to decadal time scales.
  • Simulating climate variability with models of low and intermediate complexity.

Svolgimento

Date

Hours

 

Subject

Classroom

Time

18/02/2020

1

Simulating climate with numerical models: initialisation issues, systematic errors, climate drift

IUSS

1-17

 

10.00-11.00

19/02/2020

3

Simulations of current and future climate: historical runs and climate projections

IUSS

Sala Riunioni

 

15.00-18.00

20/02/2020

3

Climate predictions: from seasonal to decadal time scales

IUSS

1-17

 

15.30-18.30

21/02/2020

3

Simulating climate variability with models of low and intermediate complexity

IUSS

1-15

 

09.00-12.00

Bibliografia

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2013: Working Group I contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report, Technical Summary.

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_TS_FINAL.pdf

Additional references will be provided during the course.

Ciclo :  XXXIII, XXXIV, XXXV

Tipologia corso : Caratterizzante

Curriculum : Rischi Idrometeorologici, Geologici, Chimici ed Ambientali

Periodo: Semestre II

Anno accademico: 2019-2020