Sources of uncertainty in climate change studies and projections (a.a. 2019/20)

Programma

Il modulo consiste in 10 lezioni, divise in due sezioni di 10 ore ciascuna, da tenersi in inglese o in italiano a seconda della presenza o meno di studenti stranieri. Il materiale didattico (presentazioni Powerpoint, articoli) sara’ in lingua inglese. Ogni lezione consiste in un seminario seguito da una sessione di domande/risposte e possibili approfondimenti, in base agli interessi degli studenti.
 

Section 1 (18-21 Nov. 2019): Analysis and interpretation of the observed record

• Introduction to sources of uncertainties in climate change studies
• The historical climate record: uncertainties in multi-decadal datasets of observed data and re-analyses
• Natural climate variability at inter-annual and interdecadal time scales
• Relationship between natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change: the attribution problem

Section 2 (18-21 Feb. 2020): Modelling climate change and its uncertainties

• Simulating climate with numerical models: initialisation issues, systematic errors, climate drift
• Simulations of current and future climate: historical runs and climate projections
• Climate predictions: from seasonal to decadal time scales.
• Simulating climate variability with models of low and intermediate complexity.

Svolgimento

Date	Hours	Subject	Classroom	Time
18/02/2020	1	Simulating climate with numerical models: initialisation issues, systematic errors, climate drift	IUSS 1-17	10.00-11.00
19/02/2020	3	Simulations of current and future climate: historical runs and climate projections	IUSS Sala Riunioni	15.00-18.00
20/02/2020	3	Climate predictions: from seasonal to decadal time scales	IUSS 1-17	15.30-18.30
21/02/2020	3	Simulating climate variability with models of low and intermediate complexity	IUSS 1-15	09.00-12.00

Bibliografia

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2013: Working Group I contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report, Technical Summary.

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_TS_FINAL.pdf

Additional references will be provided during the course.