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Lecturer: Franco Molteni 

Sources of uncertainty in climate change studies and projections (a.a. 2019/20)

Programma

Il modulo consiste in 10 lezioni, divise in due sezioni di 10 ore ciascuna, da tenersi in inglese o in italiano a seconda della presenza o meno di studenti stranieri. Il materiale didattico (presentazioni Powerpoint, articoli) sara’ in lingua inglese. Ogni lezione consiste in un seminario seguito da una sessione di domande/risposte e possibili approfondimenti, in base agli interessi degli studenti.

Section 1 (18-21 Nov. 2019): Analysis and interpretation of the observed record

  • Introduction to sources of uncertainties in climate change studies
  • The historical climate record: uncertainties in multi-decadal datasets of observed data
  • Estimating climate change from re-analyses performed with data assimilation systems: advantages and disadvantages
  • Natural climate variability at inter-annual and interdecadal time scales
  • Relationship between natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change: the attribution problem

Section 2 (dates to be agreed): Modelling climate change and its uncertainties

  • Simulating climate with numerical models: initialisation issues, systematic errors, climate drift
  • Short-term climate predictions: methodologies and uncertainties in seasonal forecasts
  • Historical simulations with climate models: what aspects of the observed record can be reproduced?
  • Climate scenarios for the 21st century: “external” and “internal” uncertainties
  • Climate predictions at decadal time scales: potential and actual advantages with respect to climate scenarios 

Svolgimento

Date

Hours

 

Subject

Classroom

Time

18/11/2019

1

Introduction to sources of uncertainties in climate change studies

Aula 1-15, IUSS

15.00-16.00

19/11/2019

3

The historical climate record: uncertainties in multi-decadal datasets of observed data and re-analyses

Aula 1-15. IUSS

14.00-17.00

20/11/2019

3

Natural climate variability at inter-annual and interdecadal time scales

Sala Multifunzione, IUSS

14.00-17.00

21/11/2019

3

Relationship between natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change: the attribution problem

Aula 1-15. IUSS

14.00-17.00

Bibliografia

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2013: Working Group I contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report, Technical Summary.

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_TS_FINAL.pdf

Additional references will be provided during the course.

Ciclo :  XXXIII, XXXIV, XXXV

Tipologia corso : Seminario

Curriculum : Rischi Idrometeorologici, Geologici, Chimici ed Ambientali

Periodo: Semestre I

Anno accademico: 2019-2020

Luogo : Iuss

Durata : 10 ore