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In this course we will make an attempt to cover some aspects of probability and statistics that relate to practical matters keeping dice tossing and card games to a bare minimum. Less emphasis will be given to derivations and more to concepts. We will start by discussing about why probability and statistics are related but are not the same. Then we will touch upon different topics where probability and statistics are essential: decision analysis, building codes, safety of structures, risk analysis, occurrence of earthquakes, hurricanes and other natural events. We will discuss these topics using real examples, such as the probability of the “Big One” occurring in the San Francisco Bay Area, whether DNA test is really as conclusive as it is thought to be, or whether do freak waves exist. Time permitting we will also talk about the tale of Yucca Mountain. Does it make sense to dump there a lot of radioactive material? The course will be organized in nine two- and two three-hour long lectures. There will be homework assigned and a final exam that will be two-hour long. The final grade will be based 30% on homework and 70% on the final written exam. The course will be taught in Italian but a scholastic knowledge of the English language is highly desirable if not necessary.

Statistica e probabilità. Perchè preoccuparsene?

Svolgimento

Il corso si svolgerà dal 1 aprile al 13 maggio 2014 e si terrà presso la Sede dello IUSS (Palazzo del Broletto Piazza della Vittoria, 15).

Bibliografia

- Ang, A. H. and Tang, W. H. (2007). “Probability Concepts In Engineering: Emphasis On Applications In Civil & Environmental Engineering,” Wiley.
- Benjamin, J. R. and C. A. Cornell (1970). Probability, Statistics, and Decision for Civil Engineers. New York, McGraw-Hill.
- Kutner M.H., Nachtsheim C., and Neter J., 2004. Applied linear regression models, McGraw-Hill, 1396 p.
-Ross, S. M. (2004). Introduction to Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists. Amsterdam, Elsevier Academic Press.
 

Esame

venerdì 16 maggio 2014 (ora da definire), Aula 1-15 (Sede IUSS).

Ambito : Scienze e Tecnologie

Semestre: Semestre II

Anno accademico: 2013-2014