# Aggregatore Risorse Aggregatore Risorse

## Programma

This course is designed to introduce graduate students to concepts and applications of structural reliability. Upon completion of this course, students will be able to:

1. Compute first- and second-order estimates of failure probabilities of engineered systems;
2. Update reliability estimates based on new observational data;
3. Identify the relative advantages and disadvantages of various analytical reliability methods, as well as Monte Carlo simulation;
4. Use reliability tools to calibrate simplified building codes;
5. Perform reliability calculations related to catastrophe risk and resilience modelling for earthquake, wind and flood loads;
6. Build surrogate models of complex engineering systems. Discuss the application of surrogate modelling to offshore wind energy risk modelling.

Course topics:

• Review of random variables and probability distributions;
• General component reliability;
• First-order second-moment (FOSM) methods;
• First-order reliability method (FORM);
• Simulation methods;
• Code calibration and acceptable risk/reliability;
• System reliability;
• Seismic reliability of structures;
• Catastrophe risk and resilience modelling.

Prerequisites:
This course will assume a basic knowledge of probability concepts such as random variables and their descriptions. Some experience with Matlab programming is preferred.

Assessment:
1) Final Homework/Project

## Svolgimento

 Classroom Lecture hours Date/Time Lecture  hours Date/Time Subject Tot h Marelli 2 hours 6/6/22, 9am 2 hour 6/6/21, 4pm Introduction. Review of random variables and probability distributions. 4/20 Marelli 2 hours 7/6/22, 9am 2 hours 7/6/21, 4pm General component reliability; First-order second-moment (FOSM) methods. (AM)   First-order reliability method (FORM). (PM) 8/20 Marelli 3 hours 8/6/22, 9am Seismic reliability of structures. (AM) 11/20 Marelli 2 hours 14/6/21, 9am 2 hours 14/6/21, 4pm Simulation methods and surrogate modelling. (AM)   System reliability; code calibration and acceptable risk/reliability. (PM) 15/20 Marelli 3 hours 15/6/22, 9am Catastrophe risk and resilience modelling; flood and wind reliability modelling (AM) 18/20 Zoom 2 hours Fire safety (Prof Torero). (AM) 20/20

## Bibliografia

Faber, M.H., Statistics and Probability Theory, Springer, 2012, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-4056-3

Novak, A.S., Collins, K.R., Reliability of Structures, CRC Press, 2013, https://www.routledge.com/Reliability-of-Structures/Nowak-Collins/p/book/9780367866273

Ang, A.H.S., Tang, W.H., Probability Concepts in Engineering: Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2nd Edition, Wiley, https://www.wiley.com/en-gb/Probability+Concepts+in+Engineering:+Emphasis+on+Applications+to+Civil+and+Environmental+Engineering,+2nd+Edition-p-9780471720645

Carmine Galasso

Professore Associato di Tecnica delle Costruzioni

Ciclo :  XXXIV, XXXV, XXXVI, XXXVII

Tipologia corso : Caratterizzante

Curriculum:  Ingegneria Sismica e Sismologia; Rischi Idrometeorologici, Geologici, Chimici ed Ambientali

Periodo: Semestre II