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Verification metrics for weather and climate a.y. 2019/20

Programma

In this course, we will introduce the concept of a probabilistic forecast, analyse data and review metrics that can be used to summarize the data key characteristics. We will then discuss how we could use parametric distributions functions to approximate and to describe them. We will then consider non-probabilistic and probabilistic forecasts, and introduce the most commonly used metrics to describe their accuracy (e.g. the root-mean-square error and the continuous-ranked-probability-score). During the course, we will also read and discuss some key scientific articles. At the end of the course, the students will be familiar with the main verification metrics used in weather and climate studies, and will be able to apply them to a set of simplified forecast data sets.

Svolgimento

The lectures will be given online on the following days (using webex):

19 June: L1+L2 Fri 11.00-13.00
22 June: L3+L4 Mon 11.00-13.00
24 June: L5+L6 Wed 11.00-13.00
26 June: L7+L8 Fri 11.00-13.00 
29 June: L9-L10 Mon 11.00-13.00

Ciclo :  XXXIII, XXXIV, XXXV

Tipologia corso : Seminario

Curriculum : Rischi Idrometeorologici, Geologici, Chimici ed Ambientali

Periodo: Semestre II

Anno accademico: 2019-2020

Durata : 10 hours