Asset Publisher Asset Publisher

Probability and Statistics for Engineering Applications (a.y. 2019/20)

Programme

OBJECTIVES
Most problems in the different fields of Civil Engineering cannot be fully and efficiently addressed without knowledge of probability and statistics. In this course we will make an attempt to cover some basic aspects of probability and statistics that relate to practical matters keeping dice tossing and card games to a bare minimum. Less emphasis will be given to derivations and more to concepts and applications. We will start by discussing why probability and statistics are related but are not the same. Concept and definition of random variables and different functions of random variables will be covered in this initial part of the course. Afterwards, focus is given to commonly used probability distribution functions in civil engineering. Discussions on statistics and sampling are presented towards the last part of the course. In this part, goodness of fit tests, regression analysis, estimation of distribution parameters from statistics, hypothesis testing and their significance will be discussed. Finally basics of Monte Carlo simulation and an introduction to variance reduction techniques will also be covered. Each topic is discussed with reference to different application problems and their solutions in different fields of civil engineering, such as Structural Engineering, Earthquake Engineering, Transportation Engineering, Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, and Geotechnical Engineering. Basic applications of decision analysis will also be introduced.
The course will be taught in English.

Theoretical lectures will be complemented by tutorials (aiming at practical application of the concepts and methods developed during the lectures). The topics to be discussed in the course are reported in the following.
Course contents:

Part

Subject

PART I

Overview of the course. Why do we need probability and statistics? Fundamentals of Applied Probability and Statistics

 

  • Main Objectives of the Course
  • Probability and Statistics. Why Bother? Do you have a good number sense?

 

  • Looking ahead: Examples of use of probability and Statistics to model occurrences of natural events

PART II

Fundamentals of Applied Probability and Statistics

 

  • Set Theory and Probability Theory
  • Random Variables and Distributions
  • Jointly Distributed Random Variables
  • Expectations and Moments of Random variables
  • Functions of Random Variables
  • Using Empirical Data
  • Common Probability Distribution Models:  
    • Models for Repeated Experiments
    • Models for Random Occurrences
    • Limiting Cases: the Normal Distribution, the Lognormal Distribution, the Extreme Value Distributions
    • Uniform and Beta distributions

Part III

Monte Carlo Simulation

 

  • Brute-force Monte Carlo simulation
  • Variance-reduction techniques

Part IV

Overview of Applied Classical Statistics:

 

  • Distribution Parameter Estimation
  • Random Variable Model Selection
  • Goodness of fit tests
  • Basics of Linear Regression Analysis
  • Hypothesis testing

Execution

Week

Classroom

Date

Lecture hours

From____ To____

Tutorial hours

From____ To_____

Tot

h

1

IUSS, 1-17

03/02/2020

14.00 – 17.00

 

3

IUSS, 1-17

04/02/2020

10.00 – 12.00

14.00 – 16.00

 

4

IUSS, 1-17

05/02/2020

10.00 – 12.00

14.00 – 16.00

 

4

IUSS, 1-17

06/02/2020

 

16.00 – 18.00

2

IUSS, 1-17

07/02/2020

09.00 – 12.00

14.00 – 16.00

5

2

IUSS, 1-15

10/02/2020

09.00 – 12.00

 

3

IUSS, 1-15

11/02/2020

10.00 – 12.00

14.00 – 16.00

 

4

IUSS, 1-15

12/02/2020

09.00 – 12.00

16.00 – 18.00

5

IUSS, 1-17

13/02/2020

 

16.00 –  18.00

2

IUSS, Sala del Camino

14/02/2020

14.30 – 16.30

Midterm Exam

2

3

IUSS, Sala del Camino

17/02/2020

09.00 – 12.00

16.00 – 18.00

5

IUSS, 1-15

18/02/2020

09.00 – 12.00

 

3

IUSS, 1-15

19/02/2020

10.00 – 12.00

13.00 – 16.00

5

IUSS, 1-15

20/02/2020

10.00 – 12.00

13.00 – 16.00

5

4

IUSS, 1-15

24/02/2020

 

14.00 – 16.00

2

IUSS, 1-15

25/02/2020

09.00 – 12.00

 

3

IUSS, Sala del Camino

28/02/2020

09.00 – 12.00

Final Exam

3

Bibliography

Handouts, scientific papers and other technical materials made available during the course.
Although not required, the following books may prove to be very useful for the course and as future reference after the course

  • Ang, A. H. and Tang, W. H. (2007). “Probability Concepts In Engineering: Emphasis On Applications In Civil & Environmental Engineering,” Wiley.
  • Benjamin, J. R. and C. A. Cornell (1970). Probability, Statistics, and Decision for Civil Engineers. New York, McGraw-Hill.
  • Kutner M.H., Nachtsheim C., and Neter J., 2004. Applied linear regression models, McGraw-Hill, 1396 p.

Exam

Evaluation

% of Final Mark

Documentation

Assignments

25%

Open

Midterm Examination

25%

1 sheet A4 (provided)

Final Examination

50%

2 sheets A4 (provided)

Paolo Bazzurro

Full Professor in Structural Design

Cycle :  XXXIII, XXXIV, XXXV

Course type : Specialist

Curriculum:  Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Seismology; Hydrometeorological, Geological, Chemical and Environmental Risks

Period: Semester I

Academic year: 2019-2020

Place : IUSS