The CARISMA Centre responds to the need for coordination of the numerous disciplinary profiles present in the IUSS that relate to the issues of climate change and sustainable development.
CARISMA proposes is the referent at IUSS for the National PhD on Sustainable Development and Climate Change.
The main objectives of the research activity are:
- Data analysis and modelling of the processes of the Earth system and the economic system.
- The assessment of the impact on the environment and humans of extreme natural events and human activities, with particular reference to climate change.
- The assessment and management of impact associated risk.
- The formulation and proposal of new economic, political and legal models of sustainable development.
The main research activities are:
- Evaluation of possible climate evolution and the effects of climate change and climate variability on the environment, on humans and social organizations, in support of sustainable development.
- Integration of climate change in risk analysis and management, through the use of data and climate modelling.
- Development of integrated methodologies to support the overall analysis of the risk associated with complex phenomena of natural and technological origin also in combination (multi-hazard risk assessment).
- Improvement of Earth system modelling, including its interactions with social and socio-economic dynamics in order to support decision-making for integrated and cost-effective risk management in support of sustainable development.
Variability and climate change, extreme events
A core line of research of the CARISMA Centre is the study of climate. The historical climate variability is analysed starting from observed data, both in situ and remotely (satellite products), and meteorological reanalysis products (e.g. ERA5 products, recently made available by the European Weather Centre ECMWF). Recent and future anthropogenic climate change and the uncertainties associated with it are analysed making extensive use of climate simulations at global and regional scales, including high-resolution simulations, produced within the international programs CMIP (Climate model intercomparison project) 5 and 6 and CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Model Experiment) coordinated by the WCRP (World Climate Research Project). Particular attention is given to the study of extreme events, such as extreme precipitation, characterized by short durations and high intensities, and heat waves, and to the Mediterranean region and developing countries, for their vulnerability to variability and climate change.
Impact of climate on productive activities and human settlements
The study of the physics of climate variability and change is accompanied by the study of the impact of climate on the environment and human activities. In particular, the effects of climate on hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts, on agricultural productivity, on energy demand and the availability of renewable sources (hydroelectric, wind and photovoltaic sectors), on human and animal thermal stress, on housing and production infrastructures in terms of possible energy efficiency are investigated. To this aim, statistical downscaling of climate model data is carried out to obtain climate data at resolutions close to those usually used in impact studies.
Interactions between environment, climate and socio-economic systems
This activity concerns the definition of policies and strategies for the mitigation of ongoing climate change and the management of the risks related to it. In particular, the research activity focuses on the development of models aimed at understanding the interactions between climate, environment and economy, with particular reference to:
- Study of the impacts on regional, national and international value chains of extreme natural events.
- Study of the impact of economic activities on greenhouse gas emissions and climate, also with respect to possible paths of future technological development.
- Study of the economic impacts of climate change, both on the real economy (production chains, consumption, investment, employment, trade and public finance), and on the financial system ("climate-related stranded assets", default risks, insurance risks, financial speculation).
- Analysis of economic policies to promote a rapid green transition of the economy, both through direct interventions by public institutions, and through the development of adequate "command-and-control" (definition of standards and constraints on polluting activities) or "market-oriented" (EU emissions trading system, green taxes) regulation schemes.
- Analysis of macro-prudential policies and financial instruments to reconcile green transition and stability of the financial system.
- Analysis of the risks associated with the negative impact of the transition to a low-carbon economy on carbon-intensive sectors, and of policies for their mitigation.
Research in the field of climate and economics will be characterized by the use of various analysis tools, including: macroeconomic models with heterogeneous agents "Agent-Based" and "Stock-Flow Consistent"; network models; econometric models; machine learning.
Ongoing research projects:
- RESILIENCE (CARIPARO)
- Dipartimento D'Eccellenza (MUR)
- Ecliptic (PRIN22)
- HOLISTIC (PNRA)
- Space It Up (ASI)
- NEWS (PRIN22 PNRR)
- ADAPTNOW (Interreg Alpine Space Program)
- CLIMATHUNDERR (HORIZON-INFRA-2021-SERV-01-07 – ERIES)
- EXTRALOADINPORTS (HORIZON-INFRA-2021-SERV-01-07 – ERIES)
- CoPe (PNRR)
- CU-BOLD (HORIZON-INFRA-2021-SERV-01-07– ERIES)
- LIDAR (HORIZON-INFRA-2021-SERV-01-07 – ERIES)
- Caratterizzazione e previsione dell'emissione e trasporto di aerosol atmosferici in Africa australe in termini di circolazione atmosferica (UFI Programma Galileo)
- ANTICIPATE (COST action)
Head: Prof. Marco Gaetani
Research staff:
Prof. Mario Martina
Prof. Andrea Taramelli
Prof. Alessandro Caiani
Prof. Alessio Ricci
Prof. Denis Sarigiannis
Prof. Francesco Dottori
Prof.ssa Giorgia Fosser
Dr. Marcello Arosio
Dott.ssa Beatrice Monteleone
Dott.ssa Jessica Reale
Dott.ssa Jlenia Di Noia
Dott.ssa Marta Ballocci
Dott.ssa Serena Sapio
Dott.ssa Fatemeh Mojtahedi
Dott.ssa Blanca Natalia Castillo Bautista
Dott.ssa Elisa Nobile
Dott.ssa Esraa Elmaddah
Dr. Marco Chericoni
Dr. Mohamed Hamitouche
Dr. Thomas Dal Monte
Dr. Gabriel Santos Carneiro
Dott.ssa Ivana Ivančić
Dott.ssa Milan Mathew
Dr. Owais Ahmed Durrani
Dr. Priyadarshi Maurya
Dr. Savino Fumarulo
Dr. Tan Nguyen Minh Phan
Dr. Victor Nyabuti Ong'era
Dott.ssa Fiza Noor
Dott.ssa Giulia Sturlese
Dr. Muhammad Nasir Imam
Dr. Nicolò Fidelibus
Dott.ssa Tiana Assis
Dott.ssa Ceren Kale
Dr. Michael Hope
National collaborations
Agenzia nazionale per le nuove tecnologie, l'energia e lo sviluppo economico sostenibile (ENEA)
Università degli Studi di Padova, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Edile e Ambientale
Università degli Studi di Padova, Dipartimento Territorio e Sistemi Agro-Forestali
Istituto Regionale di Programmazione Economica della Toscana (IRPET)
RED Risk
Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale (ISPRA)
Istituto Scienze Atmosfera Clima (ISAC CNR)
Dipartimento Energia, Politecnico di Milano
Comune di Milano
Università degli Studi di Genova, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Chimica ed Ambientale
Sanpellegrino SpA, Stabilimento Levissima
International collaborations
Laboratoire Atmosphères, Observations Spatiales CNRS (LATMOS), Paris (France)
Laboratoire Interuniversitaire des Systèmes Atmosphériques CNRS (LISA), Créteil (France)
Biogéosciences, Université Bourgogne Europe, Dijon (France)
Agenzia Fancese dello Sviluppo (AFD), Paris (France)
Gallagher RE, London (UK)
Publications are available at the following links:
Prof. Marco Gaetani: page of the IRIS archive
Prof. Mario Martina: page of the IRIS archive
Prof. Alessandro Caiani: page of the IRIS archive
Prof. Alessio Ricci: page of the IRIS archive
Prof. Francesco Dottori: page of the IRIS archive
Prof.ssa Giorgia Fosser: page of the IRIS archive
To request information on technical/scientific issues related to the CARISMA Centre, please direct your correspondence to the Head of the Centre, Dott. Marco Gaetani marco.gaetani@iusspavia.it
Tel: +39 0382 375811
Fax: +39 0382 375899
IUSS Pavia
Palazzo del Broletto,
Piazza della Vittoria 15 - Pavia (PV) 27100
Italia