A study by CNR-ISAC, published in Climate Dynamics, investigates the ability of seasonal forecasting systems to predict droughts in the Mediterranean region, highlighting the potential of multi-model approaches. 

The research, conducted in collaboration with the University School for Advanced Studies (IUSS) of Pavia, shows that integrating different models can improve the reliability and consistency of seasonal drought forecasts.

“Using multi-model combinations offers an additional opportunity to enhance future forecasting performance by leveraging the strengths of individual prediction systems,” says Thomas Dal Monte, IUSS PhD student at CNR-ISAC and lead author of the study. “The high predictability potential over known areas (Iberian Peninsula, Middle East) also confirms the influence of large-scale sources of predictability, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).”

Climate and hydrological scenarios suggest an increase in the frequency and severity of drought events in the Mediterranean region. This approach can therefore support water resource management and agriculture affected by drought, facilitating the development of more effective early-warning strategies through the combination of complementary forecasting systems.

“Further aspects related to the intermittency of predictability remain to be explored, in order to identify periods when forecasts can be expected to be more reliable,” concludes Dal Monte.